mermaid algorithm

Mermaid scientific riddle

If allele frequencies for hair color are respectively 3/8 (G, green allele) and 5/8 (g, blue allele), the probablility that Mother mermaid is heterozygous for the green hair is 5/8 from Bayes theorem.

Prior probabilities of the three genotypes:

The probability of mermaid having genotype Gg is therefore : 1 /(1+3/5) = 5/8

Source : reference

Prior ratio (GG/Gg)


Posterior ratio

9/30 = 3/10

(daugther with green allele G) -> 2

3/10 x 2 = 3/5

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